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Fiscal year 2018

Gross tax bases

The tax bases of the main taxes grew by 6.1% in 2018 (5.2% in 2017). In 2018, the growing trend that has characterized the evolution of these bases in the last five years continued. With this growth, the bases exceed the maximum that had been reached in 2007. Chart 1.7 shows these bases in comparison with nominal domestic demand which, as has been noted, is one of the aggregates closest to the evolution of the bases. In 2018, the growth of both variables differed due to the different behavior of the bases linked to income and those linked to spending, especially in the second semester.

The bases linked to income grew by 6.3% in 2018, compared to 4.6% in 2017. Growth was more intense in the second half of 2018, after the increases in salaries and public pensions approved with the Budgets and due to the improvement in company profits. On the other hand, from the perspective of spending , the bases showed a high pace, but slightly lower than the previous year (5.8% in 2018 and 6.1% in 2017), in line with the profile of domestic demand.

In 2018, household gross incomes grew by 5.2%, more than one point above the growth recorded in 2017. In evolution, two periods are clearly distinguished: the first half of the year with increases of around 4.7% and the second with increases of 5.6%. The basic reason for this very different behavior was the increase in public salaries and pensions.

Indeed, salaries and pensions, which had maintained stable growth in the first part of the year, grew at a higher rate starting in July (Graph 1.10). The wage bill rose in the fourth quarter when the salary increase for public employees was finalized and arrears were paid. For the year as a whole, the increase was 5.4%, one point more than in 2017. In pensions, the first half of the year ended with an increase of around 3%, while in the second half growth rose to almost 5%. In the accumulated amount of the year, the pension mass went from growing by 2.5% in 2017 to growing by 4.4% in 2018.

In the rest of the household income, the behavior of capital income should be highlighted in two ways. On the one hand, income as a whole (furniture, leases and capital gains) grew by 5.6%, an increase lower than that of 2017 (Table 2.1). The cause of this lower growth was the evolution of capital gains, which in 2017 increased by close to 30% and in 2018 only 2.7%. On the other hand, in 2018 there was a recovery in movable capital income. These rents had been decreasing almost without interruption since the beginning of 2012, but in the central months of 2018 the trend was broken (Graph 1.11). The main reason for the recovery was the increase in dividends and income from private debt securities.

It is estimated that the consolidated corporate tax base grew by 12.8% in 2018, an increase practically equal to that expected for profits (12.9%). The forecast is made based on the fractional payments declared by Large Companies and tax groups that are the taxpayers obliged to make payments on account for the benefits obtained throughout the year. From the analysis of these payments, it is concluded that the improvement observed in them was concentrated in a few consolidated groups, while in the rest of the companies the benefits moderated as the year progressed.

Regarding the bases linked to spending, as a whole they showed high growth, but slightly below that experienced in 2017. The final expense subject to VAT closed 2018 with an increase of 5.6% compared to 6.4% the previous year. Taking into account the evolution of prices, the slowdown was mainly of a real nature (Graph 1.13). The loss of intensity compared to 2017 occurred especially in the second part of the year. By components, it was household consumption spending that put downward pressure on the whole. On the other hand, the expenditure of the AA.PP. grew more than in 2017 and the increase in spending on new housing remained practically the same as then.

Finally, the value of consumption subject to Special Taxes grew by 6.8% in 2018, above the 4.7% in 2017 (Tables 1.3 and 5.1). Unlike what happened in 2017, the improvement is not explained by the increase in energy prices (on an annual average they rose approximately the same in 2017 and 2018; Graph 1.14), but due to the irregular evolution of the physical consumption of alcohol and tobacco in 2017 and, to a lesser extent, due to the better performance in 2018 of the consumption of gasoline, diesel fuel and electricity, although part of it was a consequence of factors not Strictly economic, such as temperatures and some atypical electricity consumption.