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Fiscal year 2018

Gross tax bases

Tax bases of the main taxes grew by 2018% in 6.1 (5.2% in 2017). In 2018, the growing trend that has characterised the evolution of these bases over the last five years has continued. With this growth, the foundations exceed the maximum that had been achieved in 2007. Chart 1,7 shows these bases compared to the nominal internal demand, which, as noted above, is one of the aggregates closest to the evolution of the bases. In 2018, both variables grew apart due to the different performance of the bases linked to income and those linked to expenditure, especially in the second half.

The bases linked to income grew by 6.3% in 2018, compared to 4.6% in 2017. Growth was more intense in the second half of 2018, following the rise in wages and public pensions approved with the Budgets and the improvement of the profits of companies. On the other hand, from the point of view of spending, the bases showed a high pace, but slightly lower than the previous year (5.8% in 2018 and 6.1% in 2017), in line with the internal demand profile.

In 2018, household gross incomes grew by 5.2%, more than one point above the growth recorded in 2017. Two periods clearly distinguish between the evolution: The first half of the year with increases in the order of 4.7% and the second with increases of 5.6%. The basic reason for this very different behavior was the increase in wages and public pensions.

Indeed, wages and pensions, which had maintained stable growth in the first part of the year, grew at a higher rate starting in July (Chart 1,10). The wage rate recovered in the fourth quarter when the salary increase of public employees was specified and the arrears were paid. The increase was 5.4% for the year as a whole, one more point than in 2017. In pensions, the first half of the year saw an increase in the environment of 3%, while in the second half growth rose to almost 5%. In the year's accumulated, the mass of pensions grew by 2.5% in 2017 to 4.4% in 2018.

In the rest of household incomes, the performance of capital income in two directions must be highlighted. On the one hand, the total income (furniture, leases and capital gains) grew by 5.6%, an increase lower than that of 2017 (Table 2,1). The cause of this lower growth was the evolution of capital gains, which increased by about 2017% in 30 and by only 2018% in 2.7. On the other hand, in 2018, the capital gains were recovered. These incomes had been decreasing almost without interruption since the beginning of 2012, but in the central months of 2018 the trend broke (Chart 1,11). The main reason for the recovery was the increase in dividends and income from private debt securities.

It is estimated that the consolidated tax base for Corporation Tax grew by 2018% in 12.8, an increase practically the same as that expected for profits (12.9%). The forecast is based on the payments declared by Large Companies and tax groups that are taxpayers obliged to pay on account for the profits obtained during the year. From the analysis of these payments, it is concluded that the improvement observed in these payments was concentrated in a few consolidated groups, while in the rest of companies the profits were moderate as the year progressed.

As regards the bases linked to expenditure, they all showed high growth, but slightly below the one experienced in 2017. The final expenditure subject to VAT closed 2018 with an increase of 5.6% compared to 6.4% in the previous year. Taking into account price developments, the deceleration was mainly real (Chart 1,13). The loss of intensity compared to 2017 was mainly in the second part of the year. By components, household consumption expenditure was the one that pushed the whole population down. On the other hand, the expenditure of the public administrations It grew more than in 2017 and the increase in spending on new housing remained practically the same as then.

Finally, the value of consumption subject to Special Taxes grew by 6.8% in 2018, above 4.7% in 2017 (Tables 1,3 and 5,1). Unlike what happened in 2017, the improvement is not explained by the increase in energy prices (on the annual average, the same increased by approximately 2017 and 2018; Chart 1,14), but due to the irregular evolution of physical consumption of alcohol and tobacco in 2017 and, to a lesser extent, by the better performance in 2018 of gasoline, gas and electricity consumption, although part of it was due to factors that were not strictly economic, such as temperatures and some atypical in electricity consumption.