The economic climate
GDP in real terms grew by 2% in 2019, compared to the 2.4% recorded in 2018. When the interannual rates are analyzed, a trend of progressive moderation is observed throughout the year, prolonging, with some occasional oscillations, the downward trajectory that had characterized 2018. The profile of total employment is more pronounced and somewhat more irregular as a result of the evolution it showed in 2018. In any case, measured by the number of full-time equivalent employees, employment also slowed slightly, going from a growth of 2.5% in 2018 to an increase of 2.3% in 2019, 3% and 2.7% if it is about employees. The moderation in the growth of household consumption and the limited increase in investment are the main reasons that explain the slowdown in activity; External demand, on the other hand, improved its performance in 2019, contributing half a point to growth.
The indicators constructed from fiscal information also presented this pattern of progressive moderation in growth, although in this case the deceleration was temporarily stopped in the central months of the year. The sales of Large Non-Financial Companies , at constant population, calendar corrected and deflated, closed the year with an increase of 1.8%, below the 3% in 2018. The year began with high rates, similar to those at the end of 2018, but as of May, growth lost intensity, giving way to a period of certain stability, which was broken in the last quarter in which the deceleration was accentuated. This same profile was observed in domestic sales, while exports improved in the central part of the year, their growth moderating in recent months. A similar behavior is observed when corporate SMEs are added to the analysis. Thus, the growth in 2019 of the total sales of Large Companies and corporate SMEs , deflated and corrected for seasonal and calendar variations, is estimated at 2.6%, almost two points less than in 2018.
For its part, the number of recipients of income from work , a variable declared when presenting the withholdings and which allows us to approximate the evolution of salaried employment, grew by 2.6% in Large Companies to constant population and 3% in the group of Large Companies and corporate SMEs, in both cases below the rates registered in 2018 (3.1% and 4.4%, respectively). Social Security affiliates, another indicator of fiscal origin, also grew less than the previous year (2.6% in 2019 compared to 3.1% in 2018). Graphs 1.4 and 1.5 allow us to clearly see the evolution that employment has followed in the last two years.
Regarding the prices , those most related to consumer spending, which are the ones that most influence the evolution of tax revenues, had a slightly lower growth in 2019 than from the previous year. This can be seen in the deflator of household final consumption expenditure in the National Accounts, which grew by 1.2% compared to 1.5% in 2018, and, more markedly, in the general CPI, which increased 0.7% in 2019 (0.5% in the last quarter) after 1.7% in 2018. As happened in previous years, the behavior was highly conditioned by the energy component, declining in the second part of the year. The underlying CPI, which, by eliminating unprocessed foods and energy products, tries to reflect the trend in prices, showed, on the other hand, a gently increasing profile in 2019, although reaching only 1% at the end of the year, which is the increase that this index already had in the second half of 2018.
The evolution of activity and prices, both on a downward trajectory in 2019, meant that domestic demand in nominal terms, the macroeconomic aggregate most closely related to income, also showed growth downward, with a profile also very similar to that of sales, with high increases in the first parts of the year, more moderate in the central semester and with a new slowdown in the final quarter. The year ended with an increase of 3.4% (4.2% in 2018). The other aggregate of interest for income is compensation of employees , which was the only variable with a more expansive behavior than in previous years (4.7% in 2019 and 4% in 2018). thanks to salary increases.