Tax revenues and their comparison with the Budget

Revenues in 2022 were much higher than budgeted, even despite the fact that the measures on the price of electricity were extended for the first six months of the year after the presentation of the 2022 Budgets and were extended again and expanded (with the additional reduction in the VAT rate) already late this year. The collection exceeded the budgeted amount by 23,111 million ( Table 1.7 ). The largest deviations occurred in the Personal Income Tax (about 9,353 million, due to the favorable performance of employment and salaries and the good results of the annual declaration), in the Corporate Tax (7,699 million due to the improvement in profits and the increase in income from the 2021 annual declaration) and VAT (6,944 million due to the positive evolution of consumption and the acceleration of prices).

In personal income tax, revenues greater than expected were accumulated in the amount of 9,353 million, 9.3% of the budgeted collection. The main source of deviation is found in job withholdings. The better performance of employment and average remuneration with respect to what is contemplated in the macroeconomic scenario of the 2022 Budget largely explains the higher income (in 2021 an increase in the remuneration of employees was expected for 2022 of 3.8% and year closed with an increase of 6.5%). The other source of positive deviation was the results of the annual declaration, both due to higher income and lower returns.

In the Corporate Tax, the collection was 7,699 million higher than what was included in the 2022 Budget, that is, it was 31.5% higher than expected. The deviation, which was concentrated in installment payments, was due to a year-end forecast for 2021, the basis for the 2022 projection, which assumed lower income than what was finally recorded.

In VAT, the final collection was 6,944 million above what was forecast in the 2022 Budgets (9.2% more than budgeted). The main reason for this deviation was the hypothesis about price growth in the macroeconomic scenario that was projected last year and which assumed lower price increases than what actually resulted.

In Special Taxes, however, the deviation was negative: Collection was lower than budgeted by 1,620 million (-7.4% compared to the forecast). The main cause of the error was the extension of the rate reduction in the Electricity Tax to the whole of 2022, a measure approved in mid-September 2021, in principle with a duration of three and a half months and, therefore, with an expected impact of only one month on 2022 cash receipts. To this we must add the negative effect of fuel prices on the revenue from the Hydrocarbon Tax.

In the rest of the income, three concepts stand out: the Foreign Traffic Tax with a deviation of 878 million due to the increase in import prices above what was expected; the underestimation in the other income of Chapter II for a value of 608 million due to the delay in the entry into operation of the Tax on Single-Use Plastics; and the negative deviation of 256 million in the Rates as a result of the ruling that left the Canon for the use of continental waters for the production of electrical energy without income.