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Exercise 2025

Gross tax bases

It is estimated that the aggregate tax base of the main taxes It grew by 7% in 2025, which represented a moderation of just over one point compared to the rate achieved the previous year (Table 1.3). This links three years with an average increase in the aggregate tax base of 7%. The same slowdown pattern was observed, as has been seen, in economic activity. The growth of GDPIn both real and nominal terms, it moderated by slightly less than one point compared to 2024. In domestic demand, a nominal variable more closely related to the evolution of the aggregate tax base than the GDPThis slower pace of progress was also reflected, although with less intensity (the year ended with an increase only three tenths lower than in 2024). Chart 1.17 illustrates this relationship between the bases and the domestic demand estimated by the National Accounts.

The smaller increase in the aggregate tax base is due to the behavior of the bases associated with income, which showed a tendency to slow down, accentuated by the large increases in income from movable capital and returns from economic activities concentrated in 2024.

Gross household income grew by 7.2%, 1.7 percentage points lower than the 8.9% of the previous year, while the corporate income tax base increased by 11.6%. This rate, although still high, is lower than the 23.1% reached a year earlier, a rise driven by regulatory changes. As a result, the tax base on income increased by 8%, representing a loss of more than three percentage points compared to the 11.2% of 2024. Meanwhile, the tax base associated with expenditure grew by 5.5%, exceeding the previous year's figure by one and a half percentage points (Chart 1.18). Expenditure subject to VAT It increased by 6.1%, compared to 5.7% in 2024, thanks to a slight increase in its real-terms component and virtually stable growth in the deflator. The value of consumption subject to II. EE. Growth returned to positive growth rates after two years of decline. The 1.4% increase was driven by higher fuel and electricity consumption and higher prices for tobacco products and electricity, both exacerbated by interest rate hikes.

The year began with a growth in the aggregate tax base with a clear downward trend (Graph 1.19). Through June the increase was 6.5% compared to 9.6% in the previous six months, partly due to the strong rebound in the taxable base of Corporate Income Tax in the second half of 2024. From mid-year onwards, however, the tax bases rebounded, increasing by 7.4% between July and December, with stable household income and the consolidated corporate tax base, and greater growth in spending subject to VAT.

Chart 1.19. Quarterly data on year-on-year variation in the aggregate tax base