4. The tax over the value added

The income from the VAT grew by 9.9% in 2025, to 99,532 million (Table 4.2) almost four points higher than the tax base, the subject expenditure, which increased by 6.1% (Table 4.1). The discrepancy between the two is explained by the increase in the average rate derived from the full recovery of rates in food, in addition to the differential effect on electricity, gas, wood and pellets, when compared to 2024 in which the recovery of the 21% rate was in effect for only a few months in the case of electricity (between March and June, due to the drop in its price) and from April for gas, wood and pellets.

In the case of energy products, the recovery of the general rate resulted in additional revenues of 562 million compared to 2024. In the food sector, the differential effect was greater, 2.004 billion, when compared to a year in which the approach to the original rates began in October, so that in cash there was an increase in income for that reason only in the month of December.

In 2025 the final expenditure subject to VAT It closed the year with a growth of 6.1%, a slight improvement compared to the 5.7% estimated for 2024 (Table 4.1), improvement that is concentrated in its real component since the expenditure deflator increased by only one tenth (Graph 4.1).

If the focus is placed on the spending agent, household spending, the main component of final expenditure subject to VATIt was the only one that showed a slight slowdown in its growth rate (5.7% in 2025 compared to 6% in 2024), derived from the moderation of prices, and with a stable increase of 3% in its real component. Conversely, current and capital spending by public administrations grew more intensely (6.9% compared to the previous 3.2%), in this case due to the greater increase in its real component. Spending on home purchases also accelerated (9.7% in 2025, 7.4% previously), with the entire increase concentrated in prices (Chart 4.2 and Table 4.1).

The impact of prices on the different components of spending has changed since the beginning of the inflationary cycle that started in 2021. Figure 4.3 illustrates this fact. Based on the year 2018, it can be seen that until 2020 the trajectories of the expenditure deflators showed a similar profile, given the moderation and stability of prices at that stage. In 2022, the year in which the sharp rise in prices occurred, the increase was greater in those that affect the spending of families and Public Administrations. However, since 2023, housing prices have shown the greatest acceleration, so that in 2025 the deflator associated with spending on home purchases exceeded by almost 40% the amount reached in 2018, while the deflators for household consumption spending and public administrations would have grown by around 21% and 24% respectively in the same period.

It is estimated that the effective rate of the VAT increased by 3.7% in 2025 (Chart 4.5 and Table 4.1) as a result of the recovery of the rates prior to the successive reductions that had been approved since 2021, to mitigate the effects of price increases in energy products (electricity, natural gas, wood and pellets) and, subsequently, in 2023, in basic food products.

Table 8.7 shows the breakdown of the expenditure subject to types. The breakdown of spending returns in 2025 to a situation similar to that observed in the period between 2013 and 2019, prior to the Covid crisis and the successive reductions that occurred from 2020 onwards to combat the inflationary process.

He VAT accrued increased by 10%, almost four points more than the subject spending (Table 4.1), due to the increase in the average rate resulting from the full recovery of rates on energy products and food. A similar rate is expected for the VAT net accrued (which differs from the previous one because it includes the variation in the balance that companies leave to offset from one year to the next). He VAT gross accrued (Table 4.2) closed the year with a rate of 8.3%. The increase in rates to bring them back to the levels prior to the successive reductions affected the type of taxpayer differently, depending on where they were located in the value generation and distribution chain of the products affected by the changes. Thus, the largest increases were recorded in monthly declarations (mainly Large Companies and groups), which reached 9.4% from 5.1% in 2024, as they were more affected by the rate increases, while in quarterly declarations the increase was 6.2%, a rate more than three points lower than that reached by the monthly declarations and also below the 7% recorded the previous year (Graph 4.4).

Regarding refund requests, they grew by 3.7% over the year, with a 2.9% increase in monthly requests and a 6.3% increase in annual requests.

The income In terms of cash flow, they grew by 9.9%, with an increase in gross revenue of 8.6% and a 5.2% increase in returns made (Table 4.2). Revenue from self-assessments grew by 8.1%, with the largest increase due to VAT total gross, due to the strong advance of income associated with deferrals and control actions (16.3%), as it includes some of the larger deferrals requested in 2024 and 2025. By type of taxpayer, although a greater increase is still observed in monthly declarations (8.3%) than in quarterly declarations (7.5%), the divergence between their rates is less than one point, less than the discrepancy observed in accrual. The reason is that the accrual corresponding to the last quarter of 2024 was entered into the 2025 cash account, with a better performance than that associated with the last quarter of 2025, which was entered in the first months of 2026. This shift between accrual and cash also explains why the slowdown observed in accrual in quarterly statements is not reflected in cash receipts.

The returns made from VAT They grew by 5.2% in 2025. Monthly returns increased by 5.5%, mainly for two reasons: the largest refunds requested in both 2024 and 2025, and the acceleration in the pace of refund processing in 2025. In the case of annual refunds, they increased again (by 2.4%) despite the 1.8% drop in applications corresponding to the 2024 financial year (submitted at the end of January 2025). The main explanation for this discrepancy lies in the higher volume of extraordinary returns. Finally, refunds linked to regional tax adjustments and imports also increased (9.3%).##10008195####10008195##