Gross tax bases

The aggregate tax base of the main taxes grew by 13.1% in 2022. This growth in the bases is similar to that observed in 2021, although it must be taken into account that in that year the comparison was made with a year, 2020, weighed down by the pandemic. In 2022, however, the comparison is made with a year in which only the first part was affected by certain restrictions on activity ( Table 1.3 ).

As has already been noted in the analysis of the economic environment, one of the aspects that characterized the year 2022 was the strong inflationary process that began at the end of the previous year. However, this price increase was not the main cause of the high growth of tax bases; The primary reason for this increase was the intense dynamism of income and spending.

For the third consecutive year, the behavior of the bases was more positive than that of the reference macroeconomic indicator usually used (the sum of domestic demand and the remuneration of employees), so that the coherence that was observed between the evolution of both series until 2021. As can be seen in Graph 1.11, since 2021 there has been a wide gap between the evolution of the bases and the macroeconomic indicator (in fact, in 2021 the former had already exceeded the pre-pandemic level by almost 5%, while that the indicator was still below 2019 levels). As has been pointed out on other occasions, there are reasons that may help explain part of this discrepancy: There are components in the bases that either are not part of the macro indicator (pensions, for example), or their importance within the aggregate is different from what they have in the bases (such as the value of consumption of energy products ). Even with these precautions, it should be noted that discrepancies between bases and very close macroeconomic variables were also observed in 2022. Such is the case of the relationship between expenditure subject to VAT and domestic demand (Graph 1.12), or the relationship between the wage bill from tax returns and salaries and wages from the National Accounts (Graph 1.13). This problem of the divergence between the tax bases and other estimated variables supports the idea of basing the analysis on the former so as not to introduce unknown elements that would make said analysis lose coherence.

The tax bases began the year with high increases, which remained around 16% during the first semester, then beginning a path of deceleration, which worsened in the last quarter, mainly in the bases linked to spending (Graph 1.14; The data in quarterly frequency of the graph can be downloaded at this link ). This profile was conditioned by three elements: the upward effect that the comparison had in the first part of the year with a period of 2021 that was still affected by restrictions, the evolution of economic activity whose momentum slowed in the last quarter and more moderate price increases since the end of the summer.

The bases linked to income closed the year with a growth of 10% (9.6% in 2021), while, in those associated with expenses, the increase reached 17.7% (18.7% a year before; Graph 1.15). The greatest advance in income linked to spending is due, in part, to the fact that they were the most affected by the effects of the pandemic, effects that lasted until the first part of 2021, which led to greater increases in the first quarter of 2022, both in expenditure subject to VAT and in the value of consumption subject to Special Taxes, also fueled by the increase in prices.

The gross income of households grew by 8.1% ( Table 2.1 ), exceeding the increase recorded in 2021 by two points. The improvement was observed in all its components, with the exception of unemployment benefits and property gains (which in 2021 were already in figures only below the highs of 2006 and 2007). Growth was especially intense in private income, around 11% for the second consecutive year, while public income showed somewhat more moderate progress, as a consequence of the fall in unemployment benefits (Graph 1.16). The evolution of the rest of public income was positive, with a notable increase in pensions while public salaries maintained a growth rate close to 5% (Graph 1.17).

Labor income, which is the main component of household income, grew by 7% in 2022 (4.2% in 2021, Table 2.1 ). Salaries and pensions grew more intensely than in 2021, while unemployment benefits decreased due to both the lower number of unemployed people and the decrease in the average benefit.

Within salaries, the evolution was different depending on the sector, private or public. In the private sector, growth in 2022 was 10.5% (8.7% in 2021; Table 2.2 ). In the first half of the year, they increased by around 12.6% thanks to the positive evolution of employment, partly due to the comparison with periods affected by restrictions on activity in 2021. In the second part of the year, growth slowly moderated as job creation slowed down (in the fourth quarter the change rate was only 7.6%). For its part, in the public sector the wage bill grew by 4.7%, a similar rate to that recorded a year before, although for different reasons; While in 2021 the main cause of the increase was the increase in employment, in 2022 it was the increase in average salaries, especially after the additional pay at the end of the year to compensate for the rise in prices.

Regarding public pensions, after the strong increase registered in January for the compensatory pay associated with the price deviation in 2021, the mass of pensions maintained growth of around 6.8% throughout the year ( For the year as a whole, the increase was 7.9%; Table 2.2 ). The average pension grew by 6.6%, a consequence of said compensatory payment, the general increase in pensions established for 2022 and, as usual, the upward effect caused by the incorporation of pensioners with average pensions higher than those who were already in the system.

It is estimated that in 2022, household capital income as a whole (furniture, rentals and capital gains) grew by 12.3%, equaling the rate achieved in 2021 and already exceeding pre-pandemic levels ( Tables 2.1 , 2.4 , 2.5 and 2.6 ). This result was the result of the combination of disparate evolutions between the different types of assets. Income from movable capital grew by more than 27% after falling 2.5% in 2021, thanks mainly to the positive evolution of dividends. Despite this, these incomes failed to reach the pre-pandemic level.

Income from the rental of properties, which since 2015 has had the greatest weight on total capital income, grew by 14% (3.8% in 2021). The recovery of these rents was especially intense in 2022, observed both in the leases of premises (which are subject to withholding) and in those of homes.

For its part, equity gains grew by 1.9% over the already very high figure for 2021 (34.9%). Part of this moderation has to do with the profits linked to investment funds, which were reduced by 20.6% after the strong growth in the final stretch of 2021.

Income from personal businesses also contributed to the good performance of household income, increasing by almost 17% in 2022, very high growth, even more so if we take into account the good result they already showed in 2021 (31%, Table 2.8 ), when they managed to far exceed pre-pandemic levels. As is the case with private salaries, the profit of these companies grew more intensely in the first half of the year, as they were highly concentrated in activities that were especially affected by the restrictions associated with the pandemic and that lasted until the first half of 2021. The disappearance of this comparison effect, as well as the slowdown in activity, meant that progress was smaller in the last part of the year.

The consolidated tax base of Corporate Tax grew by 20.8% ( Table 3.1 ), linking two years of strong increases (in 2021 the increase was 35.5%, although the comparison was made with the year with the highest incidence of the pandemic). Profits also grew at a good pace, 17% (36% in 2021). These increases, already notable in themselves, are even more so if we take into account that they are compared to a year in which extraordinary operations were recorded (a bank merger and the sale of assets by a large company). In the case of fractional payments ( Table 3.2 ), the benefits of the consolidated groups rose by 14.9%, reaching almost 60% for those who paid taxes according to their minimum payment, while that for Large Companies not integrated into groups the increase is estimated at 19%.

final expenditure subject to VAT grew by 14.2% in 2022 ( Table 4.1 ). As in other figures, the increase was much higher in the first part of the year (20.5% until June), favored by the comparison with a first half of 2021 still affected by some limitations on activity and by a process stronger inflation than that observed in the final part of 2022. The slowdown in spending was especially intense in the fourth quarter, for which an increase of 4.4% is estimated. Discounting the increase in prices, spending growth would be 5.5% for the year ( Table 4.1 and Chart 1.18). Household consumption spending was once again the component that grew the most (15.9%), after having been the one that suffered the greatest decline due to the pandemic. Despite this, it was not able to recover the weight it had on the total subject expense. Housing spending also grew strongly (12.5%), while public administration spending, which was the only component that increased in 2020, thanks to the greater disbursement associated with dealing with the effects of the pandemic , increased by 4.6% in 2022, compared to the 7.3% reached the previous year ( Table 4.1 ).