The economic climate
In 2023, a gradual moderation in real activity was observed, at least until the final months in which it recovered slightly. The nominal variables maintained, however, high rates. The basis of growth was domestic demand, particularly in the second part of the year when exports began to show some weakness. The inflationary process, which was one of the most notable characteristics in 2022, was significantly attenuated in terms of consumption and production prices, although not in terms of added value. In line with activity, the pace of job creation also moderated.
GDP in volume closed the year with an increase of 2.5%, after starting the year at 4.1% and stabilizing the rest of the year around 2% (Graph 1.1). In quarter-on-quarter terms, growth remained stable at around 0.5% since mid-2022. Only in the third quarter of 2023 is there a slight slowdown (0.4%) that was offset by the rebound in the fourth quarter (0.6%). The disappearance of the contribution that external demand was having until the first quarter largely explains the loss of intensity in growth (Graph 1.2).
The situation is different when analyzing the variables in nominal terms, which also showed a decelerated tone, but not in all the variables that are relevant to the evolution of collection. This is the case of GDP nominal whose growth stood at 8.6%, with growth close to 11% in the first parts of the year and progressive moderation until the end of the year at 7.1% (Graph 1.1). Domestic demand and household domestic consumption spending, the most useful indicators for monitoring income, grew by 6% and 7.1%, respectively. For its part, the remuneration of employees grew by 8.8%.
A similar behavior was seen in the main fiscal indicators. The daily sales of the Immediate Supply of Information system of the VAT , published weekly on the website of the AEAT , allow monitoring of the evolution of activity in real time. Graph 1.3 shows this evolution comparing 2023 and 2022.
As can be seen in this graph, sales in 2023 remained above those of 2022 until the end of April. From those dates they began to decrease and only recovered when the year ended. Behind this behavior are two elements that have been mentioned above: the end of the inflationary process that had characterized the year 2022 and the weakness that exports began to show. Graph 1.4 reflects the first of them. As seen in Graph 1.3, original sales, in nominal terms, decreased since April, coming from the high rates of the previous year, while deflated sales corrected for seasonal variations (CVEC) remained at small growth, and increased in the whole year.
The negative trajectory of exports is reflected in Graph 1.5. The crossover between both years also occurred in April, but, unlike the total, the behavior of foreign sales worsened in the following months. Also in the Customs foreign trade series (Graph 1.6) this evolution can be clearly seen, which, on the other hand, was less intense than that followed by imports, which were more linked to energy prices. Therefore, despite the poor performance of exports, the trade balance improved slightly compared to 2022.
The fiscal indicator with the greatest coverage (more than 1.1 million companies), the total sales of Large Companies and SMEs corporate , also showed that slowdown profile representative of activity in 2023. In Graph 1.7 they are shown together with the monthly variation of the sales of Large Companies. The graph serves to confirm that, despite the moderation trend throughout the year, in recent months there has been a small rebound that in quarterly terms goes unnoticed (the graph also illustrates the impact in 2023 of the transport strike in March 2022).
The lower tensions in prices were manifested in both production and consumption. To see this, Graph 1.8 includes indicators of both variables, industrial production prices ( IPRI ) and consumer prices ( CPI ). In 2023 the traits that had stood out in 2022 were reversed.
If in that year inflation was more intense in production than in consumption, in 2023 the prices of industrial production fell while consumer prices remained at increases of around 3.5% since March, which was the average increase for the year. Furthermore, the non-energy component of inflation was also more persistent in consumer prices than in production prices, whose growth since mid-year was below 2% (Graph 1.9); In consumption, on the other hand, the downward trend was slower, with non-energy prices remaining above 6% for most of the year.
This divergence between production and consumption prices can help explain the difference in the behavior of these prices and the GDP deflator (Graph 1.1), which grew by close to 6% in 2023 compared to the previous year. just over 4% than it had done in 2022. It must be remembered that this deflator tries to measure how the prices of added value behave, which is a different concept from the variation in production or consumption prices. Its evolution in 2023 is consistent with a reduction in production costs that did not completely translate into lower final prices, but was transferred to the remuneration of employees and the business margin. The data offered by the Business Margins Observatory ( OME ), a joint project of the Bank of Spain, the AEAT and the Ministry of Economy, available on the website of the first two, they support this idea. Chart 1.10 shows the evolution of sales, purchases and added value of the companies included in OME . As can be seen, the intense slowdown in sales was accompanied by a sharper increase in purchases, so that the added value increased more than in 2022. Graph 1.11 shows the part of the added value that is gross operating result, that is, the benefits generated in the productive activity. In the graph, the percentages observed in the companies of OME are completed with the distribution of the added value in favor of the benefit of personal companies in direct estimation, information that can also be found on the web of OME as a complement to the companies' results.
Regarding employment , its evolution ran parallel to activity, with greater growth in the first part of the year and lower and stable growth from the second quarter onwards. This is true in particular for employees and in the registration indicators (affiliation and recipients of work income). On the other hand, the profile of the magnitude of the most used National Accounts employment (full-time equivalent employment) was different, with an upward trend throughout the year (derived from the more negative profile it had in 2022). Graphs 1.12 and 1.13 illustrate this evolution for total employment and for employees.
