The tax statistics that have been published in recent weeks close the data for the first quarter of the year and allow us to make a first assessment of the evolution of the economy in that period. The set of graphs that accompany these lines illustrate the main results.

The most novel and notable feature of the recent situation is the rebound that occurred in real activity during the first quarter. As can be seen in Chart 1, which includes the results of the monthly report of sales, employment and salaries of Large Companies and the quarterly report of sales, employment and salaries of Large Companies and corporate SMEs , sales in real terms grew in said quarter in contrast to the decelerated trend that had shown throughout the year 2023. There were already signs of this rebound in the data that became known at the end of that year thanks to the weekly notes that report on the evolution of daily sales in companies covered by the VAT Immediate Information System (SII). The improvement could also be noted in the new statistics ( Advance of Domestic Sales in Large Companies and SMEs ) which also uses the information from the SII, but now with the added perspective of the companies that buy or sell to those companies. In this way, the group for which information is available is expanded from the approximately 75 thousand companies included in the SII to the entire population and with this, a leading indicator of high frequency and wide coverage is gained and, in addition, with representation of all sectors, including those in which there is a greater presence of SMEs.

As seen in Chart 2, the improvement in real activity has to do with the lower losses observed in exports in the first quarter. Domestic sales had been picking up in the final stretch of last year, but then exports were still in a very negative phase that had lasted almost since the first months of the year. In the first quarter, exports continued to lose positions compared to last year, but at a slower rate, which, together with a certain stabilization of domestic sales, allowed the final result in total sales to be as mentioned.

At the same time that the rebound occurred in real terms, price tensions continued to relax. Chart 4, which represents the year-on-year rates of total sales in nominal terms, shows the drastic slowdown that occurred in the second quarter of 2023 (note that, although Charts 1 and 2 have a similar profile, the rates from the first quarter are very different). The rest of 2023 and the beginning of 2024, with some prices falling (particularly energy prices), nominal sales growth was around zero. As noted in a previous entry in this newsletter in which the end of 2023 was discussed, this meager sales result may mislead the interpretation of the situation or make it paradoxical that income continues to grow at a good pace (until March 7.5%; see Monthly Tax Collection Report ) with such small sales increases. The contradiction is explained as soon as the drop in purchases at the same time is taken into account. Graph 4 shows the two evolutions, that of sales and that of purchases, and their difference, the added value. As you can see, although sales offer practically no increase compared to the same quarter last year, the added value does, slightly more than 4%. The trend, indeed, is also one of progressive moderation, always in nominal terms, but the rate is now closer to what demand and domestic consumption grew in these first stages of 2024.   

The panorama is completed with the information published in the Business Margins Observatory . The data offered on this portal allow us to analyze the evolution of added value and its breakdown into personnel expenses and gross operating profit, by different types of companies (companies and personal companies in objective estimation), by activities or by various measures ( margin with respect to sales or with respect to added value). Graphs 5 to 8 bring together the most notable results.